A Military Simulation Game end in a Nuclear Confrontation Between China and the United States
Mainland china and the island of Taiwan were separated at the end of the 1949 civil war between nationalists and communists. Central area china was left in the possession of the socialists and the patriots escaped and assumed command over Taiwan. Only 80 miles separate the two territories and despite their proximity for more than 70 years, there have been numerous tensions, but never a military conflict for china. Military Simulation
Taiwan is a rebel province and must be united to form one china. Yet the Chinese leadership had in recent decades maintained a more pacifist approach by trying to isolate Taiwan internationally and by increasing its influence on the island, so that organizations and citizens would lean towards unification. However, in the last three years or so much attention has increased that, on the one hand, china’s invasion of Taiwan is becoming more and more realistic and, on the other hand, u.s intervention in defense of Taiwan is becoming more and more likely. Military Simulation
So the questions are. Why would the united states now have to defend Taiwan if china invades the island? How are the two powers preparing and why did a military simulation game end in a nuclear confrontation between china and the united states in the past world geopolitics was dominated by oil. Nowadays, it is said that the new oil is microchipped, since they are incorporated in almost everything from washing machines, cell phones, and cars to nuclear weapons, and it just so happens that the island of Taiwan is home to the leading manufacturer of the most advanced microchips. Military Simulation
Time accounts for more than 90 percent of the world’s production of the most advanced microchips or semiconductors, making both the united states and china highly dependent on this single company. For this reason, the united states are increasingly concerned about Taiwan’s security and stability. First, if china invades it could take over the microchip factories- and there is nothing to stop it from disrupting or blocking the export of these semiconductors to the united states and its allies or to those who impose sanctions on China.
In the case of an invasion, and second, because tsmc’s factories are all located along the west coast of Taiwan, they’re close to beaches considered as possible landing sites for Chinese troops, thus making them very vulnerable to being damaged by crossfire between Taiwan and china. So, given the u.s dependence on Taiwan-made microchips, it is inevitable that it will become directly involved.
The united states used to have a policy of strategic ambiguity about whether it would intervene militarily in a conflict in Taiwan, a historic ally, I.e, almost no one knew for sure whether the united states would directly defend Taiwan. This was meant to deter China from invading, but this strategy appears to be changing. Military Simulation
Joe Biden was recently asked by a journalist on his tour of Asia if he was willing to defend Taiwan militarily and to everyone’s surprise, Biden answered yes, thus changing the old policy ambiguity that left in the air that doubt whether the united states would intervene or not, are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that? Military Simulation
Yes, you are, this answer is not insignificant, as it would represent a direct war between china and the united states. Although Biden is famous for his confusing speeches and the press department has come out to clarify what the president meant, he may have done it on purpose to send a message to china, on the other hand, the Asian country has strong incentives to take the island of Taiwan by force first because the united states and its allies have been imposing barriers on china for several years to limit access to technology such as microchips. Military Simulation
So far, China produces mostly low-end chips for consumer electronic devices, so for china to be able to access the most modern semiconductor factories that Taiwan produces is a priority secondly, because, for the Chinese communist party, the Taiwan issue is an unresolved issue since 1949 and xi Jinping, the Chinese president wants to leave his legacy. Otherwise, his massive military modernization would be wasted in china. Military Simulation
They are aware that the longer they wait, the more time Taiwan will have to arm and prepare, also because fewer and fewer Taiwanese consider themselves Chinese or want to be part of mainland china. Now the other question is how are china and the united states preparing to move away from dependence on Taiwan. Military Simulation
The manufacturing of advanced chips, I.e those described as 10, nanometers or less, is one of the most complex manufacturing processes. There is the completion of silicon. Wafer can take up to four months, these semiconductors are so complex and capital intensive that a single fab can cost 20 billion dollars to get an idea that money could buy 80 Boeing, 787 airplanes.
That is why it is so complex for competitors in other countries to catch up with time, which is the world’s 11th most valuable company by market capitalization. This company alone plans to invest 100 billion dollars over the next three years, exceeding our government’s 50 billion investment. Military Simulation
In the microchip sector and matching china subsidies for its industry over the next few years, although tsmc is building a fab in the us state of Arizona, it will produce five-nanometer chips, but when it comes online in 2024, those made by tsmc in Taiwan will be three-nanometer chips and on the Chinese side, despite its heavy investments, it will probably continue to produce chips, two or three generations older.
Therefore, some say that time is the most important company in the world, but at the same time, Taiwan is the most dangerous area in the world, geopolitically. Speaking in a simulated war game, it turned out that the fight for Taiwan could be nuclear such war games involve officials, academics, and military experts around a table playing different roles. In theory. Military Simulation
These exercises provide insight into how the different countries involved in the conflict would act recently. NBC News, in collaboration with the military think tank, ran a game to provide insight into how a possible war between china and the united states over Taiwan might play out. Military Simulation
Two teams representing each country were formed and at the end of the game, it was shown that china’s military modernization and expansion of its nuclear arsenal would mean that in the real world the fight could go nuclear. The full episode is in the link in the description, but to summarize, if the Chinese communist party decides to invade the island, it is possible that its leaders cannot accept a failure. This would seriously damage the legitimacy of the regime.
Therefore, china may be willing to take great risks and the use of nuclear weapons may be the most effective means to keep the united states out of the conflict. For example, in the drill china launched an attack on u.s bases in the indo-pacific region, specifically Guam. In response, the u.s attacked Chinese military vessels. Military Simulation
which was far from its mainland, both considered the attacks as direct attacks on their territory, and in the end, since china does not have that many nuclear weapons, and it has no first use doctrine, it had difficulty convincing the us that its nuclear threats were credible, so in the game, china decided to detonate a nuclear weapon as a demonstration off the coast of Hawaii. Military Simulation
So it is possible that in reality, a nuclear war could take place, although not on a large scale, but rather limited and strategic. With the objective not to destroy massively but to demonstrate determination or to improve negotiating power on the battlefield, but although these simulations may show a realistic vision, the reality, the context and the moment in which the war takes place may influence its development.
For the moment. What is certain is that Taiwan will remain one of the most dangerous places in the world because it has a company that dominates the new oil of the 21st century, the most advanced microchips. Military Simulation